COVID-19 situation deteriorates rapidly

The transmission of coronavirus in the country is spreading rapidly. In the tenth week of the virus appearing in Bangladesh, the number of confirmed cases is on an upward curve. The number of deaths is fast accelerating too. Data of the first two days of the eleventh week indicate a worsening situation ahead.

Over the past 24 hours, the highest number of cases and deaths were confirmed in a day. The number of tests has been the highest too. In these 24 hours, 9,799 samples were tested, 1,602 were coronavirus positive. And 21 persons died of COVID-19 in this span of time.

The 8-member advisory group of the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) had already predicted to the government that by 16 to 18 May, COVID-19 transmission would peak. This would continue till Eid-ul-Fitr. After Eid, the cases would go up one day and down another, but it would be a downward curve.

COVID-19 situation deteriorates rapidly

Concerned persons have said that this prediction seems to be materializing. Over the past two days, the trend seems to be proceeding in that direction. However, because some of the restrictions are being relaxed, it cannot be ascertained whether the country is actually at the peak of the virus outbreak at the moment. It is apprehended that the situation will worsen in the coming two weeks and so there are also questions as to whether there will be a downtrend in the spread of the virus after Eid.

The prime minister’s personal physician, UGC professor ABM Abdullah told Prothom Alo that he had previously said that the transmission would begin to decrease at the end of May. He had made that prediction based on the lockdown. But given the circumstances, it is now difficult to say whether the incidence of coronavirus cases would go up or down.

He said over the past few days there were all indications of a rapid deterioration of the situation. The government had to relax some of the restrictions due to pressing realities. However, the people took advantage of this situation and have been crowding in various areas and moving around indiscriminately. This, he said, was raising the risks.

From Sunday the eleventh week of the contagion in the country began. The government had announced a general holiday from 26 March, in a bid to tackle the spread of coronavirus. All commute and businesses were halted and the country faced a virtual lockdown. Then on 26 April garment factories opened up and the lockdown was relaxed. Within two weeks (the incubation period is two weeks), in the tenth week beginning 10 May, the situation deteriorated fast.

At the outset, the number of COVID-19 tests was few, but now samples are tested in 42 centres.

With the increase in testing, the number of confirmed cases has also increased.

Over the past 9 days, the number of confirmed cases has rapidly shot up.

Initially, 8 to 14 per cent of the samples in a day tested positive.

Then in the ninth week (3-9 May), 10.99 to 13.96 percent tested positive.

In the tenth week (10-16 May), other than on one day, the other days each recorded 14 percent of the samples testing positive.

This has increased further in the eleventh week.

On the first day of the week, there was 15.68 per cent of positive samples and on the second day, Monday, 16.36 per cent.

Ever since the outbreak of COVID-19 in the country, with the exception of one week, the transmission has worsened every week.

In the seventh week, 2,854 samples tested positive, which were 1,192 cases more than the previous week.

In the eighth week there 938 more positive cases than the previous week.

And in the ninth week, the confirmed cases went up by 1,188, when the number of cases testing positive stood at 4,980.

In the tenth week, the number of positive cases was 7,225.

In the first two days of the eleventh week, 2,875 cases were confirmed.

The number of deaths has risen too from the tenth week.

In the tenth week, there were 100 COVID-19 deaths.

The previous highest number of deaths had been 56 in the seventh week.